Exploring Crisis and Conflict Management Through a Scenario Study of a Waste Incineration Project in Hangzhou, China

Municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration projects often trigger “Not In My Backyard” (NIMBY) conflicts, which pose persistent crises to social development and sustainable governance. This study introduces a novel “reputation–interest” space model grounded in scenario–response theory to reframe NIMBY conflicts as processes of crisis transformation. We construct a multi-stakeholder indicator system and propose a crisis resilience degree model to capture both the risks and opportunities embedded in conflict dynamics. The application object is a waste incineration project in Hangzhou, China. The analysis reveals how NIMBY conflict can evolve from strong resistance to a neighbor–benefit effect. Empirical results show that the crisis resilience degree of the project evolved from 37.26% to 89.26%, from the initial strong resistance of the residents to the successful in situ landing, which improved the crisis resilience, recovering resilience from the crisis. The results provide actionable insights for policymakers to turn NIMBY conflicts into drivers of social trust and sustainable urban transformation.