Association Between Substitutions and Match Running Performance Under Five-Substitution Rule: Evidence from the 2022 FIFA World Cup

This study investigated associations between substitutions and match running performance (MRP) under the new five-substitution rule, utilising running data from the 2022 FIFA World Cup involving all 32 participating men’s national teams, comprising elite professional football players at the highest international competitive level. A paired sample t-test compared running performance among entire match players (EMP), replaced players (RP), and substitute players (SP) per team per match. A linear mixed model (LMM) was used to analyse the association between substitutions and MRP while also considering match-related factors associated with MRP as covariates and controlling for team variations. The main finding was that substitute players exhibit superior running performance compared to RP and EMP. Running metrics related to match outcomes indicate that more substitutions are associated with increases in total running distance and the number of sprints. This study highlights the importance of substitutions on team running performance under the new rules in modern elite football. Coaches can optimise their substitution strategies and physical training according to the new rules to meet the high-intensity demands of the game.