Modelo de gestión para el abastecimiento de perecederos Agro-frescos evaluado a través de Simulación Montecarlo

This study addresses the design of an agricultural supply chain management model with chain articulation based on the association of Retail Merchants (RM) that distribute fresh agricultural products to the end user through a Central Wholesale Food Center (WFC). The objective is to achieve greater efficiency in the supply operation for this type of food by reducing distances and supply times for each RM, in addition to achieving a balanced load of products handled by each link in the chain. All of this will result in lower prices for the end consumer and increased food security. It also contributes to improving traffic and, therefore, the environmental impact caused by freight transport. The model is validated with a sample of RMs from a Colombian population using the Monte Carlo simulation technique with eight replications. This technique was developed by first defining a 60-day run length equivalent to the average harvest duration in Colombia. Second, an input analysis of the decision variables to be modeled using probabilistic distributions. Finally, a representation of the system's logical operating sequence was performed, thus obtaining a balance analysis between the system's demand and supply. The model's performance was measured through indicators of final inventory, available units, and the number of units supplied to the WFC. The results demonstrated savings through a 20.4% reduction in daily supply operation costs and an average increase in weekly profit of $31,000.