Tourism urbanization multidimensional influence on tourist traffic emissions: China prefecture level panel data analysis of the space

• Nonlinear link between tourism urbanization and transport carbon emissions. • Spatial dependence of visitor traffic emissions across tourism urbanization dimensions. • Spatial Durbin model reveals dynamic tourism emissions, aiding tailored low-carbon policies. • Partial differential method shows varied direct, indirect, total effects on emissions. Amid growing concerns over global climate change and the urgent pursuit of sustainable development goals, carbon emissions from tourism-related transportation have emerged as a critical issue influencing both green urban transformation and the advancement of low-carbon tourism. This study constructs a multidimensional indicator system of tourism-induced urbanization—encompassing industrial urbanization, population urbanization, and ecological urbanization—based on panel data from prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2006 to 2021. Employing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), the study empirically examines the direct and spatial spillover effects of tourism-induced urbanization on tourism transportation carbon emissions. The study yields several key findings: (1) tourism-induced urbanization significantly contributes to the increase in tourism transportation carbon emissions (TTCE), with a pronounced spatial clustering pattern; (2) among the three dimensions of tourism-induced urbanization, both industrial urbanization and population urbanization exert significant positive effects on local and neighboring TTCE, whereas ecological urbanization demonstrates a certain degree of carbon mitigation effect; (3) notable regional heterogeneity exists, particularly in eastern China, where the combined effects of population agglomeration and ecological vulnerability intensify carbon emission pressures. This research enriches the theoretical framework of tourism transportation carbon emissions and offers empirical evidence and policy implications for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of urban tourism systems.