Stay or Stray: A Comparative Analysis of Short-Term Volunteer Permanence in the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Three-Stage Model of Volunteers’ Duration of Service

Abstract Understanding the factors that predict volunteer retention is critical for the sustainability of nonprofit organizations (NPOs), but the determinants of volunteer permanence still require research. This study investigates the utility of the Three-Stage Model of Volunteers’ Duration of Service (3SMVDS) in predicting volunteer retention after 5 months and compares its explanatory performance to that of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Through path analysis, we assess each model's ability to predict volunteer retention after a 5-month period. The data analysis from 271 Spanish novice volunteers yields significant insights. The findings indicate that the 3SMVDS is more effective than the TPB in predicting actual volunteer retention at the 5-month mark, although it presents some theoretical discrepancies with the original model. These results underscore the complexity of volunteer retention and encourages a more sophisticated theoretical understanding that could guide the development of targeted interventions for NPOs to enhance volunteer engagement and retention.