Climate policy uncertainty, supply chain resilience and enterprises’ green total factor productivity: Evidence from China

We empirically examine the effects of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on enterprises' green total factor productivity (GTFP) and the mechanism pathways using panel data of Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2023. We find that a CPU increase of 1 standard deviation results in a decrease in enterprises' GTFP of approximately 0.18 standard deviations. However, when CPU is transmitted through supply chain resilience (SCR), this negative effect is weakened. Moreover, enterprise ownership nature and chain directors' green experience play positive moderating roles in the relationships among CPU, SCR and GTFP, which can further attenuate the shock. The negative impact of CPU on GTFP is insignificant when firms are located in cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt or in central China because of factors such as strict external regulation, managers’ strong environmental awareness and ecological insensitivity. In addition, this negative effect, once spread, will shorten the default distance of firms and eventually lead to an increase in the probability of credit default.