Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025
The Gulf of Panama's (GOP) seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January-April for at least 40 y. Here, we document the failure of this normally highly predictable phenomenon in 2025. Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024-2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling's cooling. This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies.
Authors
- Hans A. Slagter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4243-9869)
- Hedy M. Aardema (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3202-1194)
- Michał T. Chiliński (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3496-9966)
- Ralf Schiebel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6252-7647)
- J. Díaz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3940-6038)
- Gerald H. Haug (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7534-4420)
- Jonathan D. Cybulski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8415-6162)
- Aaron O’Dea (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5495-4764)
- Steven Paton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-6699)
- Lena Heins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2330-3529)
- Andrew J. Sellers (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5799-4040)
- Christopher Pöhlker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6958-425X)
- Carmen Pérez-Medina
- Alexandra Guzmán Bloise
Institutions
- Board of the Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology (CH)
- Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública (EC)
- Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (DE)
- Istituto di Scienze Marine del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (IT)
- University of Warsaw (PL)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2025-09-02
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2512056122
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.72
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Smithsonian Institution
- Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación