Optimizing Ethnic Regional Development: A Coupled Economic–Social–Environmental Framework for Sustainable Spatial Planning

This study employs a systems theory approach to investigate the coupling coordination and driving mechanisms within the economic–social–environmental (ESE) system in China’s ethnic regions. It analyzes 67 ethnic counties in Sichuan Province, using an integrated framework that combines dynamic Shannon entropy, coupling coordination modeling, and GeoDetector. Based on data from 2005 to 2024, the study reveals the spatiotemporal patterns of ESE coupling coordination. The key findings are as follows: (1) The coupling coordination degree has gone through four stages: moderate imbalance → mild imbalance → primary coordination → moderate coordination. By 2024, 81.8% of counties had achieved coordinated development, and “highly coordinated” counties emerged for the first time. (2) The Western Sichuan Plateau has formed a high–high agglomeration zone by monetizing ecological assets and utilizing ethnic cultural resources. In contrast, the hilly and parallel ridge–valley regions in central and eastern Sichuan remain in low–low agglomerations due to their dependency on traditional industrialization paths. The decrease in high–low and low–high outliers indicates the recent policy polarization effects. (3) The interaction between habitat quality and per capita GDP has the strongest explanatory power. The rising marginal contributions of energy and carbon emission intensity suggest that green industrialization is crucial to breaking the “poverty–pollution” trap.