Integration of Forest-Climatic Projects into Regional Sustainable Development Strategies: Russian Experience of Central Forest-Steppe

The strategic goal of the transition to a low-carbon economy in Russia requires the active integration of forest-climatic projects into regional sustainable development strategies, especially for areas with high agricultural pressure such as the central forest-steppe of the European part of the Russian Federation. The region contains over 18 million hectares of forest land, which is approximately 2.1% of the area of Russian forests, and intensive agricultural development increases the need for innovative approaches to restoring forest ecosystems. The work uses indicators of the state forest register, data on 18 reforestation projects and 22 afforestation projects, and the results of forecasting the dynamics of greenhouse gas absorption until 2030. It is estimated that by 2030, the sequestration potential of the forests of the central forest-steppe can be increased by 28–30%, which will neutralize up to 12% of emissions from industrial enterprises in the region. In the paper, to unify the assessment, it is proposed to use the carbon intensity factor of investment costs, which, in a number of implemented projects, ranged from 1.2 to 2.7 RUB/1 kg CO2 eq., reflecting the cost of achieving one ton of absorbed CO2 equivalent. At ratios above 1, the economic value of the carbon units created exceeds investment costs by at least 20%. Environmental–economic modeling showed that with an increase in the forest cover of the region by 1% (180 thousand hectares), the annual absorption of CO2 increases by approximately 0.9–1.1 million tons, and the increase in potential income from the sale of carbon units could amount to 1.6–2.2 billion RUB per year at the current price of 1.8–2 RUB/kg CO2-eq. The use of an integral criterion of environmental and economic efficiency helps increase the transparency and investment-attractiveness of forest-climatic projects, as well as the effective integration of natural and climatic solutions into long-term strategies for the sustainable development of the Central Forest-Steppe of Russia.