Land use expansion without productivity gains: evaluating Bangladesh's National Environmental Policy (2018) using local projection analysis

Bangladesh’s 2018 National Environmental Policy (NEP) was introduced to reconcile agricultural development with ecological sustainability—an urgent priority given that agriculture accounts for approximately 91% of national land use. This study investigates the NEP’s short-term effects on agricultural productivity and land-use expansion using local projection analysis, PCA-based fertilizer indices, and robust stationarity tests (ADF, PP, Zivot-Andrews) over the period 1981–2022. This timeframe ensures full climate data coverage, captures pre- and post-policy dynamics, and reflects agriculture’s 11–13% annual contribution to national GDP. The analysis reveals a policy paradox. Despite the NEP’s sustainability ambitions, agricultural productivity remained statistically unchanged (all *p* > 0.1), whereas agricultural land area expanded significantly (coefficient = 0.027, *p* < 0.01 at the 4-year horizon). This expansion appears to reflect the policy’s emphasis on conservation-oriented reforms; however, the precise influence of individual practices—such as agroforestry—can not be disentangled from the current dataset. These outcomes are consistent with Ecological Modernization Theory, which suggests that land-use reforms tend to be institutionally adopted more rapidly than productivity-enhancing measures. Accordingly, our findings underscore the necessity of complementary interventions to ensure that ecological goals are achieved alongside sustained yield growth in Bangladesh’s agricultural sector. • Absolutely, emam. Here's the polished version in a clear point-wise format: • The NEP 2018 shows no significant effect on agricultural productivity growth, reflecting regulatory trade-offs. • Land use expands in the short term, aligning with Ecological Modernization Theory and signaling early policy responsiveness. • Reforms like agroforestry spur land transformation, though without concurrent productivity gains. • Precision irrigation subsidies and farmer training are vital to link land expansion with sustainable yield improvement. • The study offers a model for assessing environmental policies in Global South nations aiming for agricultural sustainability.