Assessment and Prediction of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risks in the Henan Section of the Yellow River Basin

To accurately grasp the land and ecological dynamics in the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and provide detailed local data for the ecological protection of the YRB, this article takes the Henan segment within the YRB as the research area, explores the spatio-temporal evolution of land use (LU) and landscape ecological risks (LERS), and predicts LU and LERS under various scenarios in the future based on the PLUS model. We found that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, object types in research area were given priority with cultivated land, forest land, and construction land, with construction land and cultivated land experiencing the largest changes of 5.71% and −6.34%, respectively. Changes in other land types varied within a ±3% range. The expansion of construction land principally encroached upon cultivated land, indicating significant urban sprawl. (2) The high-ecological-risk areas were clustered in the area centered in Zhengzhou, and the low-ecological-risk areas were distributed in the edge of the study area. As risk levels increased, the risk center gradually shifted towards the central regions, particularly around Luoyang and at the junction of Luoyang, Zhengzhou, and Jiaozuo. (3) The LU status in 2030 was projected using the PLUS model under three varied scenarios. The Kappa coefficient of the model was 0.81, and the overall accuracy was about 88.13%. Cultivated land, forest land, and construction land still accounted for the main part, and the area of cultivated land and construction land changed significantly. Based on this analysis of LERS prediction, the distribution of risk levels in different scenarios was different, but in general, high-ecological-risk areas and higher-ecological-risk areas accounted for the main part, while the study area’s edges were where low-ecological-risk zones were situated. Research can offer scientific and technological support for the sensible utilization and administration of resources, along with the protection of the ecological environment and regional sustainable development.