Observational Impacts of Extreme Rainfall on Active Layer Hydrothermal Properties in China's Upper Heihe River Basin

Abstract Permafrost is both a product of climate change and an indicator of its progression. Rising air temperature has led to permafrost degradation, resulting in the melting of ground ice and the release of carbon to the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback loop. Extreme weather events, particularly extreme rainfall, have been increasing, yet the effects of extreme rainfall on permafrost remain unclear. Here, we use long‐term observational data to investigate the effects of extreme rainfall on the hydrothermal properties of the active layer at two sites in China's upper Heihe River Basin, EBoA and PT5. Two methods are applied: hierarchical linear regression and a relative variation ratio. The results for both sites indicate that when rainfall exceeds 10 mm, soil temperatures increase. This suggests warming effects of extreme rainfall on the active layer that maybe attributable to reduced heat loss from decreased actual evapotranspiration, as well as increased thermal conductivity and heat transfer due to elevated soil moisture during extreme rainfall events. Future studies investigating the effects of extreme rainfall via irrigation experiments and physical modeling could benefit our results as a reference for the design of controlled experiments.