The sustainable future of cities under uncertainty: identifying key factors of adaptive urban resilience in Yazd, Iran

Despite the focus of previous studies on the static aspects of urban resilience, a significant gap remains in understanding its adaptive dynamics under uncertainty. This study seeks to identify the key factors influencing Adaptive Urban Resilience (AUR) in Yazd, Iran, through a hybrid methodological framework comprising Delphi, MICMAC (Matrix of Crossed Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification), and Monte Carlo simulation. A total of 52 indicators across eight urban resilience dimensions were evaluated. The results indicate that the efficiency of climate change adaptation mechanisms (EN7) had the highest influence score (98.00), positioning it as a strategic leverage point for system-wide adaptation. Land-use change (PH4) with a score of 92.99, and geopolitical risks (P4) with 91.99, also emerged as top drivers of systemic transformation. In contrast, environmental pollution (EN1) and green space accessibility (EN2) were identified as highly unstable variables, necessitating flexible and adaptive planning. Overall, the findings underscore systemic instability driven by interlinked physical, political, and environmental factors. The proposed framework offers actionable insights for integrated and forward-looking urban resilience planning in arid, heritage-rich cities.