Exploring the role of age structure in regional population change of the Visegrad Group

A caveat of much of the existing demographic literature is that it decomposes population change into the components of fertility, mortality, and migration, treating ageing merely as a consequence of natural change while neglecting the role of age structure in the observed dynamics. This study applies a scenario-based decomposition approach, using counterfactual scenarios for each factor of population change (fertility, mortality, migration, and age structure) to assess their individual contributions. The 37 NUTS-2 units of the Visegrád Group countries (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary) were selected as units of analysis. The research focused on the origins of regional differences and on the explanatory role of age structure. The results indicate that differences at the regional scale cannot be attributed solely to national-level variation, as cross-border groupings also emerge in the cluster analysis. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that initial age structure constitutes an independent and essential explanatory factor of population heterogeneity, both at the national and regional levels.