When Pell Today Doesn’t Mean Pell Tomorrow: The Challenge of Evaluating Aid Programs With Dynamic Eligibility

Generally, need-based financial aid improves students’ academic outcomes. However, the largest source of need-based grant aid in the United States, the Federal Pell Grant Program, has a mixed evaluation record. We assess the minimum Pell Grant in a regression discontinuity framework, using Kentucky administrative data. We focus on whether and how year-to-year changes in aid eligibility and interactions with other aid sources attenuate Pell’s estimated effects on post-secondary outcomes for marginally Pell-eligible students. This evaluation complements past work by assessing explanations for null, negative, or muted impacts found in our analysis and other Pell evaluations. We also discuss the limitations of using regression discontinuity methods to evaluate Pell—or other interventions with dynamic eligibility criteria—with respect to generalizability and construct validity.