A trait‐based framework for adaptive phenotypic plasticity under global change

Phenotypic plasticity is often regarded as a key mechanism for coping with environmental change, yet its adaptive potential remains uncertain in part because of inconsistencies in how environmental stressors are defined and studied, and the traits that are studied. We propose a framework that partitions global change into four distinct dimensions: mean change, variability, stochasticity, and episodic events, each of which presents unique challenges for organisms. A central determinant of plasticity's adaptive value is predictability, yet existing studies inconsistently quantify it, conflating structured environmental variation with stochasticity. We introduce standardized approaches to measuring predictability and cue reliability, ensuring that plastic responses are assessed in ecologically meaningful contexts. We then present a multiple‐trait‐based framework for evaluating the likelihood of plastic trait deployment across increasing magnitudes of global change dimensions. This framework serves as a heuristic model to guide research priorities, identify key knowledge gaps, and generate testable hypotheses about the conditions under which plasticity may contribute to persistence in the face of global change. Through a case study of Daphnia pulex , we demonstrate how the framework can be used to identify key new research approaches and identify empirical data needed to reveal and explain emergent patterns across trait types and global change conditions. By refining predictability metrics and experimental approaches, this framework advances efforts to determine when and where plasticity can buffer populations from global change, offering a foundation for future research and conservation planning.