Redistribution of Coal Trade Volumes Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle Under the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

ABSTRACT Recent public health security events have led to export restrictions and increased uncertainty in global supply, making countries face the challenge of adjusting their trade volumes to minimize losses. This paper presents a model for redistributing coal trade volumes among 54 major coal‐trading countries using the maximum entropy principle. It simulates trade volume adjustments in light of the Russian‐Ukrainian conflict and analyzes changing coal trade relations. The results show that China absorbed 64.8% of Russia's incremental coal exports, Ukraine significantly increased its coal imports from Australia and Kazakhstan (by 13,257,521,100 kg and 11,251,183 kg, respectively), and Germany increased its coal imports from Australia by 17,215,515,513 kg, which is 62 times more than its increased coal imports from China. The results offer theoretical guidance for countries adjusting coal trade volumes under the supply risks.