Russia-Related Sanctions Programs: Factors of US Sanctions Policy Evolution

Abstract Based on a transitive approach of neoclassical realism, the following study models the influence of structural and elemental factors on US sanctions policy development. Using a comprehensive methodology that combines both quantitative and narrative analysis, as well as an adapted Chang’s aggregate index for national power, the model effectively analyzes US Russia-related sanctions programs. The study reveals that the redistribution of power in the structure of international relations ( IR ) reduces the effectiveness of US sanctions and expands opportunities for the target country (Russia) to reduce costs and diversify risks by increasing its own components of power and alternative centers of power (China). The case of Russia demonstrates that in the conditions of a weakening US hegemony, Washington relies on a strategy of suppressing its competitors rather than balancing them, leading to a steadily increasing role of sanctions within US foreign policy. At the state level, US Russia-related sanctions are largely influenced by US political elites and their perception of Russia as a major threat. With trends in the structure of international relations gravitating towards multipolarity, the actions of the United States and its use of sanctions as a tool within its foreign policy belt will likewise continue to increase.