Using Certainty Factor as a Spatial Sample Filter for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: The Case of the Upper Jinsha River Region, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) faces persistent challenges in defining representative stable samples as conventional random selection often includes unstable areas, introducing spatial bias and compromising model accuracy. To address this, we redefine the certainty factor (CF) method—traditionally for factor weighting—as a spatial screening tool for stable zone delineation and apply it to the tectonically active upper Jinsha River (937 km2, southeastern Tibetan Plateau). Our approach first generates a preliminary susceptibility map via CF, using the natural breaks method to define low- and very low-susceptibility zones (CF < 0.1) as statistically stable regions. Non-landslide samples are exclusively selected from these zones for support vector machine (SVM) modeling with five-fold cross-validation. Key results: CF-guided sampling achieves training/testing AUC of 0.924/0.920, surpassing random sampling (0.882/0.878) by 4.8% and reducing ROC standard deviation by 32%. The final map shows 88.49% of known landslides concentrated in 25.70% of high/very high-susceptibility areas, aligning with geological controls (e.g., 92% of high-susceptibility units in soft lithologies within 500 m of faults). Despite using a simpler SVM, our framework outperforms advanced models (ANN: AUC, 0.890; RF: AUC, 0.870) in the same region, proving physical heuristic sample curation supersedes algorithmic complexity. This transferable framework embeds geological prior knowledge into machine learning, offering high-precision risk zoning for disaster mitigation in data-scarce mountainous regions.