Educational Facility Site Selection Based on Multi-Source Data and Ensemble Learning: A Case Study of Primary Schools in Tianjin

To achieve the objective of a “15 min living circle” for educational services, this study develops an integrated method for primary school site selection in Tianjin, China, by combining multi-source data and ensemble learning techniques. At a 500 m grid scale, a suitability prediction model was constructed based on the existing distribution of primary schools, utilizing Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Comprehensive evaluation, feature importance analysis, and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) interpretation were conducted to ensure model reliability and interpretability. Spatial overlay analysis, incorporating population structure and the education supply–demand ratio, identified highly suitable areas for primary school construction. The results demonstrate: (1) RF and XGBoost achieved evaluation metrics exceeding 85%, outperforming traditional single models such as Logistic Regression, SVM, KNN, and CART. Validation against actual primary school distributions yielded accuracies of 84.70% and 92.41% for RF and XGBoost, respectively. (2) SHAP analysis identified population density, proximity to other educational institutions, and accessibility to transportation facilities as the most critical factors influencing site suitability. (3) Suitable areas for primary school construction are concentrated in central Tianjin and surrounding areas, including Baoping Street (Baodi District), Huaming Street (Dongli District), and Zhongbei Town (Xiqing District), among others, to meet high-quality educational service demands.