Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the Wilsonomyces carpophilus under multiple climate change scenarios

Wilsonomyces carpophilus is capable of causing shot-hole disease drupe fruit trees globally, severely affecting plant health and fruit quality, and posing a major threat to agriculture and forestry under climate change conditions. During 2021-2024, we conducted extensive field surveys in a total of 90 sample plots in the wild apricot distribution area of Ili, Xinjiang, China, based on different factors such as tree age, slope orientation, elevation, stand and climatic conditions.Pathogenic fungi were isolated and characterized through morphological and molecular approaches. This study predicts the current and future potential distribution of W. carpophilus using species distribution models (SDMs) and multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analyses under SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios for the 2050 s and 2090s. Occurrence records from databases, field surveys, and reports provided 641 presence points, refined to 302 for model compatibility. Environmental variables from WorldClim were reduced to six key factors using variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis to minimize collinearity.Results indicate a substantial expansion of suitable habitat for W. carpophilus under future climates, particularly SSP585. High-suitability areas are projected to increase notably across Europe, North America, and parts of Asia by the 2090s, suggesting increased opportunities for establishment. MESS analysis showed significant shifts in environmental similarity, especially in northern regions, highlighting areas of increased uncertainty. The dominant drivers of suitability were Precipitation Seasonality, Mean Diurnal Range, and Precipitation of the Wettest Month. The response curves indicated a preference for moderate levels of these climatic factors.The findings emphasize the need for targeted monitoring and proactive management in regions projected to become highly suitable under future scenarios. Integrating SDMs into policy frameworks can guide resource allocation and adaptive management to mitigate risks. Future research should include ecological interactions, and advanced models such as Joint Species Distribution Models (JSDMs) to improve prediction accuracy. This study underscores the need for continuous monitoring and adaptive management to mitigate the risks posed by W. carpophilus under climate change, helping protect vulnerable agricultural and forestry systems.