Transactional Risk Management in Construction and Reconstruction Investment Projects Using MATLAB Simulink and Fuzzy Decision Support Systems

The study proposes a simulation model of the interaction between the main participants in a construction and reconstruction investment project: the customer and the contractor. Both parties strive to satisfy their economic interests. However, prioritizing immediate gains exposes them to significant long-term losses. The priorities of the customer and the contractor in fulfilling contractual obligations are modeled using fuzzy logic inference algorithms. The inputs of these algorithms are determined by assessing the business partner’s value and the party’s market position. The model captures how fulfilling or failing to meet contractual obligations alters the parties’ attitudes and responsibilities. The developed simulation model assesses how the project outcome is affected by the parties’ subjective evaluations regarding the timing of work and payments, and the allocation of limited resources. The study also examines the proportions between the economic consequences of contractual breaches and substantiates the net intertemporal effect of financial resource savings. The analysis of the residential real estate market values and their variability, due to differences in technical conditions and location, provided the basis for determining the benefits and losses of underfinancing construction and reconstruction work. Assessing lost benefits from delayed delivery of finished construction objects considers expected and pessimistic scenarios, reflecting the price volatility in the primary and secondary housing markets.