Evolution and Attribution Analysis of the Relationship Among Soil Erosion Negative Service, Carbon Sequestration, and Water Yield in the Yellow River Basin After the Grain for Green Program

Understanding the tradeoff and synergy among ecosystem services (ESs) and their influencing factors is a prerequisite for simultaneously managing multiple ESs and holds significant importance for achieving harmonious regional development between humans and nature. Existing research predominantly focuses on the overall characteristics of tradeoff and synergy, while studies on spatially differentiated tradeoff and synergy characteristics remain limited. In addition, their driving mechanisms are not yet fully understood, especially in large-scale river basins. This study, taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2023 as the study area, employed multi-source data and multiple models to quantify three ESs, including soil erosion negative service (indirectly reflecting the soil conservation service function), carbon sequestration, and water yield. Combining Pearson correlation analysis, a geographically weighted regression model, and optimal parameter geographical detection, we identified the spatiotemporal interaction relationships and their dominant drivers. The results indicated that soil erosion negative services decreased by 24.89%, while carbon sequestration and water yield increased by 53.30% and 38.47%, respectively. The most significant improvements in the three ESs were observed in the midstream of the YRB. Spatially, soil erosion negative service decreased from west to east. Carbon sequestration exhibited a spatial pattern of higher values in the south and east and lower values in the north and west. Water yield decreased from south to north. Tradeoff relationships existed between soil erosion negative service and carbon sequestration and between soil erosion negative service and water yield. A synergistic relationship existed between carbon sequestration and water yield. Over time, the proportion of areas showing synergy among these three ESs decreased. However, synergistic areas remained more common than tradeoff areas. This was especially evident in the relationship between carbon sequestration and water yield, where synergy consistently accounted for over 78% of the YRB. Rainfall, soil properties, and fractional vegetation cover were identified as important drivers of the tradeoff/synergy between soil erosion negative service and carbon sequestration. Rainfall, temperature, fractional vegetation cover, and elevation were significant drivers of the interactions between carbon sequestration and water yield. Population density, fractional vegetation cover, GDP density, and rainfall were the main influencing factors for the tradeoff/synergy between soil erosion negative service and water yield. Our general methodology and results provide valuable decision-making references for policymakers, highlighting the necessity of considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ESs tradeoff characteristics and their underlying driving factors.