Exploring urban future: enhancing good urban governance through scenario planning in Urmia city, Iran

Urban management is evolving rapidly to meet the demands of changing lifestyles, emerging challenges, and future developments. Effective urban governance is crucial for upholding democratic principles, and this study aims to explore potential scenarios for improving governance in Urmia, Iran. Using an applied approach, the research combines documentary research and survey methods to analyze the future of good urban governance. A panel of 35 urban planners, city managers, and researchers was selected through snowball sampling for identification of key factors as one of the main purposes of conducting interviews in this study. The Delphi method was employed for data collection, and scenario development was facilitated using the Scenario Wizard software. The analysis identified 36,864 possible scenarios for the future of good governance in Urmia city, with three demonstrating strong compatibility and 589 showing poor compatibility. One of the key challenges facing Urmia city is the lack of social justice in the distribution of services by municipal management institutions across urban areas. The unequal allocation of resources and facilities is a direct result of varying political powers and influences. The study suggests 8 key factors that embracing urban foresight and implementing scenario planning can help Urmia address these challenges and create a city that truly serves the needs of its residents.