From Smuggling to Armed Drones: The Evolution of Unmanned Technologies in the Arsenal of Latin American Organized Crime

The subject of research is the use of unmanned aerial vehicles by organized criminal groups in Latin America and the Caribbean Basin countries during 2010–2025. The transformation of drones from tools for drug smuggling across the US-Mexico border to full-fledged combat platforms capable of delivering precision strikes with explosive devices is analyzed. The evolution of tactical UAV application by major cartels (CJNG, Sinaloa, Nueva Familia Michoacana) and insurgent groups (ELN, FARC) is examined. Technical modification of commercial drones into improvised bombers with thermal imaging, FPV systems, and autonomous navigation is investigated. The geographical spread of the threat from Mexican border states to urban slums of Brazil, prisons of Ecuador, and gang territories in Haiti is studied. State countermeasures, international cooperation, and legal regulation of UAV circulation in thirteen regional countries are analyzed. The methodological foundation includes open source intelligence (OSINT) data analysis with incident verification through geolocation of video materials, content analysis of official documents from US and Latin American law enforcement agencies, and reports from international organizations (UNODC, INTERPOL, OAS). A comparative case-study approach is applied to identify regional patterns and functional classification of drone application methods. Verification is conducted through cross-checking independent sources and comparison with official statistics from thirteen regional countries. The research presents a comprehensive study of the drone threat from organized crime in the LAC region, filling a gap in security studies. A functional typology of UAV application (surveillance → logistics → violence) and taxonomy of criminal platforms has been developed. Concepts of "adaptive criminality" in technological context, "technological spillover" between sectors, and a model of "drone arms race" have been introduced. Critical turning points in threat development (2020, 2022-2023) have been identified and connections established between the Ukrainian conflict and the spread of combat drone use among Latin American cartels. Threat mapping has been conducted with correlation between drug trafficking geography and state institutional weakness. Prognostic scenarios for 2025-2030 and recommendations for improving international countermeasures against criminal use of unmanned technologies, applicable to other world regions as well, have been formulated.