A GeoAI-Informed Analysis of the Chenab River Basin in Jammu & Kashmir: Interdependencies of Hydrology, Infrastructure, and Geopolitics

Abstract The Chenab River basin, a critical transboundary water resource in South Asia, presents a Complex system governed by rugged topography, dynamic hydrology, extensive anthropogenic infrastructure, and a contentious geopolitical framework. This paper provides a detailed GeoAI-informed analysis of the Chenab basin as it drains through the Jammu region of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). By structuring geospatial, hydrological, and policy data into an integrated framework, this study examines the intricate interdependencies between the river's physical characteristics, the vast network of hydroelectric dams, the regulatory constraints of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), and the overarching impacts of climate change. Our analysis reveals that while the basin's steep geography is conducive to hydropower, the IWT has historically constrained project designs, leading to political friction. The existing run-of-the-river dams significantly alter the river's natural flow and sediment regime, with operational actions like reservoir flushing causing drastic downstream fluctuations. The recent suspension of the IWT by India signals a paradigm shift towards a more unilateral and securitized approach to water management, accelerating infrastructure development. Compounding these issues, climate change acts as a stress multiplier, increasing the risk of catastrophic floods and long-term water insecurity. This paper concludes that the management of the Chenab River is a precarious balance, where GeoAI can serve as a vital tool for modeling complex scenarios and informing more resilient and cooperative water management strategies in a highly volatile environment. Keywords: Chenab River, GeoAI, Hydrology, Indus Water Treaty, Hydropower, Climate Change, Jammu and Kashmir, Water Resource Management.