Shifts in River Flood Patterns in the Baltic States Between Two Climate Normals

River spring and flash floods are highly dependent on variations in meteorological conditions. In the Baltic States, substantial changes in air temperature and precipitation have been observed between the two most recent climate normal periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). Therefore, changes in the magnitude of spring and flash floods across different hydrological regions between these periods were analyzed to better understand shifting hydrological patterns. Daily flow data from 1961 to 2020 were obtained from 68 water gauging stations on 55 rivers. The Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, as well as Sen’s slope estimator, were applied to analyze the time series of flood maximum discharges. The most pronounced negative trends in spring and flash floods were observed in Lithuanian rivers, with the magnitude of these trends gradually weakening toward Latvia and Estonia. The maximum flood heights (hMAX) generally declined during 1961–2020, particularly in Lithuania and western Latvia. Spring flood data showed the most significant decrease, particularly during 1991–2020, when hMAX declined on average by 0.14 mm/year in Lithuania and 0.05 mm/year in Latvia. Flash floods exhibited smaller declines, also concentrated in 1991–2020. In the major rivers (Nemunas, Neris, and Daugava), peak discharges of both floods declined consistently throughout the study period.

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Publication Details

Journal
Water
Published
2025-08-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/w17172567
Primary Topic
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Type
article
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article

Shifts in River Flood Patterns in the Baltic States Between Two Climate Normals

Darius Jakimavičius, Līga Klints, Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, Alvina Reihan et al.
Water
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
article

Shifts in River Flood Patterns in the Baltic States Between Two Climate Normals

Darius Jakimavičius, Līga Klints, Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, Alvina Reihan, Diana Šarauskienė, Elga Apsīte, Anna Põrh
article en

Abstract

River spring and flash floods are highly dependent on variations in meteorological conditions. In the Baltic States, substantial changes in air temperature and precipitation have been observed between the two most recent climate normal periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). Therefore, changes in the magnitude of spring and flash floods across different hydrological regions between these periods were analyzed to better understand shifting hydrological patterns. Daily flow data from 1961 to 2020 were obtained from 68 water gauging stations on 55 rivers. The Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, as well as Sen’s slope estimator, were applied to analyze the time series of flood maximum discharges. The most pronounced negative trends in spring and flash floods were observed in Lithuanian rivers, with the magnitude of these trends gradually weakening toward Latvia and Estonia. The maximum flood heights (hMAX) generally declined during 1961–2020, particularly in Lithuania and western Latvia. Spring flood data showed the most significant decrease, particularly during 1991–2020, when hMAX declined on average by 0.14 mm/year in Lithuania and 0.05 mm/year in Latvia. Flash floods exhibited smaller declines, also concentrated in 1991–2020. In the major rivers (Nemunas, Neris, and Daugava), peak discharges of both floods declined consistently throughout the study period.

WaterVol. 17(17)
Tallinn University of Technology (EE), Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies (LV), Environment Agency (GB), Lithuanian Energy Institute (LT), Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre (Latvia) (LV), University of Latvia (LV)
Openalex Percentile: Top 78%
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
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Shifts in River Flood Patterns in the Baltic States Between Two Climate Normals — Darius Jakimavičius, Līga Klints, et al. · Water (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS