Shifts in River Flood Patterns in the Baltic States Between Two Climate Normals
River spring and flash floods are highly dependent on variations in meteorological conditions. In the Baltic States, substantial changes in air temperature and precipitation have been observed between the two most recent climate normal periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). Therefore, changes in the magnitude of spring and flash floods across different hydrological regions between these periods were analyzed to better understand shifting hydrological patterns. Daily flow data from 1961 to 2020 were obtained from 68 water gauging stations on 55 rivers. The Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, as well as Sen’s slope estimator, were applied to analyze the time series of flood maximum discharges. The most pronounced negative trends in spring and flash floods were observed in Lithuanian rivers, with the magnitude of these trends gradually weakening toward Latvia and Estonia. The maximum flood heights (hMAX) generally declined during 1961–2020, particularly in Lithuania and western Latvia. Spring flood data showed the most significant decrease, particularly during 1991–2020, when hMAX declined on average by 0.14 mm/year in Lithuania and 0.05 mm/year in Latvia. Flash floods exhibited smaller declines, also concentrated in 1991–2020. In the major rivers (Nemunas, Neris, and Daugava), peak discharges of both floods declined consistently throughout the study period.
Authors
- Darius Jakimavičius (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4196-627X)
- Līga Klints
- Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3521-647X)
- Alvina Reihan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5725-8104)
- Diana Šarauskienė (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5165-5021)
- Elga Apsīte (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2821-9659)
- Anna Põrh
Institutions
- Tallinn University of Technology (EE)
- Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies (LV)
- Environment Agency (GB)
- Lithuanian Energy Institute (LT)
- Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre (Latvia) (LV)
- University of Latvia (LV)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Water
- Published
- 2025-08-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3390/w17172567
- Primary Topic
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00