Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Land Consolidation in the Coastal Regions: A Typical Case Study of Lianyungang, China

Understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of land consolidation is essential for optimizing regional land resource allocation and mitigating human–land conflicts during socio-economic development. This study introduced a novel framework for analyzing such patterns in China. Utilizing a two-decade (2002–2022) prefecture-level city dataset of land consolidation projects in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, we developed a “land consolidation intensity” metric and applied quantitative techniques—including land use transfer matrices, landscape pattern indices, Sankey diagrams, and standard deviation ellipses—to assess spatio-temporal dynamics and centroid shifts. Key findings included: (1) Land consolidation intensity exhibited distinct stages, evolving from initial development to rapid growth and eventual stabilization, closely aligning with national policy shifts. (2) The primary sources for supplemented cultivated land were ponds, rivers, and tidal flats, followed by grassland, construction land, and forest land, with cultivated land consistently dominating the consolidated landscape. (3) Land consolidation projects distribution concentrated in economic and political centers, with a spatial shift from inland western region towards the eastern coastal region. (4) Gray relational analysis identified economic development as the predominant driver, with policy and social factors providing secondary guidance. This research elucidates the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of land consolidation at the prefecture-level city and demonstrates the utility of the proposed framework for similar analyses, offering insights relevant to national land use planning and policy formulation.