The Impact of Rural Population Shrinkage on Rural Functions—A Case Study of Northeast China

As industrial and urban growth advances, the challenge of rural population shrinkage has grown more pronounced, impacting rural functions. Northeast China is an example in this study, and a rural function evaluation index system is constructed based on four dimensions: agricultural production, economic development, social security, and ecological conservation. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the impact of rural population shrinkage on rural functions is quantified in this study using bivariate spatial autocorrelation and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the rural population in most counties in Northeast China declined, while agricultural production, economic development, social security, and ecological conservation functions generally trended upwards. According to the GTWR model, the positive effect of rural population density on agricultural production weakened over time, slightly promoting social security and continuing to inhibit ecological conservation. In contrast, the supporting effect of average rural population size on economic development strengthened, its inhibitory effect on ecology decreased, and it slightly inhibited social security. While rural population shrinkage generally promoted agricultural development, economic growth, social security, and ecological improvements, its positive impact on agricultural development declined over time, and the promotion effects on social security and ecological conservation partially turned into inhibition after 2020. Policy recommendations are presented in this paper, providing a solid scientific foundation for the sustainable development of rural areas in Northeast China.