Viral Quasispecies Inference from Single Observations—Mutagens as Accelerators of Quasispecies Evolution

RNA virus populations exist as quasispecies-complex, dynamic clouds of closely related but genetically diverse variants generated by high mutation rates during replication. Assessing quasispecies structure and diversity is crucial for understanding viral evolution, adaptation, and response to antiviral treatments. However, comparing single quasispecies observations from individual biosamples, especially at different infection or treatment time points, presents statistical challenges. Traditional inferential tests are inapplicable due to the lack of replicate observations, and resampling-based approaches such as the bootstrap and jackknife are limited by biases and non-independence, particularly for diversity indices sensitive to rare haplotypes. In this study, we address these limitations by applying the delta method to derive analytical variances for a set of quasispecies structure indicators specifically designed to assess the quasispecies maturation state. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using high-depth next-generation sequencing data from hepatitis C virus (HCV) quasispecies evolving in vitro under various conditions, including free evolution and exposure to antiviral or mutagenic treatments. Our results reveal that with highly fit HCV quasispecies, sofosbuvir inhibits quasispecies genetic diversity, while mutagenic treatments accelerate maturation, compared to untreated controls. We emphasize the interpretation of results through absolute differences, log-fold changes, and standardized effect sizes, moving beyond mere statistical significance. This framework enables robust, quantitative comparisons of quasispecies diversity from single observations, providing valuable insights into viral adaptation and treatment response. The R code and session info with required libraries and versions is provided in the supplementary material.