Coup–Terrorism Nexus: Security Implications of Political Instability in Francophone West Africa

The wave of military coups in Francophone West Africa in recent years—most notably in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has coincided with a marked escalation of terrorist violence, intensifying the region’s already fragile security environment. Despite extensive literature on coups and terrorism individually, the complex interplay between them remains insufficiently examined. This study investigates the coupterrorism nexus, examining how unconstitutional regime changes reshape security governance and influence patterns of extremist violence. Employing a qualitative comparative approach supported by event-based datasets from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and the Global Terrorism Database, the analysis identifies three critical pathways linking coups to rising insecurity: diminished state capacity, the breakdown of regional counter-terrorism cooperation, and geopolitical realignments away from traditional partners such as France. Findings revealed that post-coup transitions often produce security vacuums that militant groups exploit, undermining counterinsurgency operations and regional stability. These insights carry significant implications for ECOWAS policy frameworks, African Union security strategies, and the design of resilient governance structures in conflict-prone states.