Impacts of land-use change on carbon storage and sequestration in forest ecosystems of in Benin

Modeling the impacts of land-use change has become a critical concern in developing strategies to mitigate climate change. This study aims to assess the impact of land-use change on carbon flux. To simulate land-use changes by 2035, SPOT satellite images from 1995, 2005, and 2015 interpreted visually were integrated into the MOLUSCE module, which combines cellular automata and artificial neural network algorithms. These images, coupled with default carbon values, served as the basis within the InVEST model to estimate carbon storage over time. Results indicate that natural formations have been reduced in favor of agricultural land and settlements, with a carbon loss between 12.79 and 14.53% from 2005 to 2015. If this trend continues, an additional 5% carbon loss could occur between 2015 and 2035, highlighting that the destruction of natural formations would disrupt the carbon cycle and contribute to climate variability. In Toucountouna, projections indicate that the total estimated carbon stock in natural formations will decrease to 4,007,320.67 tons by 2035 if no action is taken. In Matéri, it is expected to decline to 292,256.58 tons. In Ségbana, the net loss is projected to reach 5,590,827.33 tons by 2035. Similarly, in Dassa-Zoumé, Ouaké, and Parakou, the estimated net losses by 2035 are 202,936 tons, 379,165.76 tons, and 841,667.1 tons, respectively. It appears important to implement effective land-use planning to restore forest ecosystem functions.