Localization to globalization: the spatial logic of dual circulation and its driving factors in China’s battery electric vehicle industry

To achieve the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” and promote high-quality economic development, China is vigorously developing new energy and strategic emerging industries. Based on the enterprises, customs trade data from 2000 to 2022, this study applies kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial Durbin model to discuss the battery electric vehicle (BEV) industry’s spatial organization pattern in China and worldwide, along with the characteristics of its development stage and driving factors. The results demonstrated that: (1) from internal circulation (ICI), China's BEV industry’s inter-firm linkages are spatially heterogeneous, multinuclear, with increasingly indicated characteristics of “large dispersion and small agglomeration”. (2) From external circulation (ECI), the BEV industry shows notable path dependence and agglomeration effects. Upstream imports are highly dependent on lithium-rich countries. Midstream export is active, with more trade-advantage regions than trade-disadvantage regions. Downstream supply and demand are growing, and its exports are on an upward trajectory. (3) From dual circulation (DCI), the organizational structure presents a network pattern with the eastern coastal region serving as the nucleus of commodity trading. The main drivers for industrial spatial organization have progressively transformed from being policy-driven to a multi-dimensional focus on technology and market. (4) Economic development, industrial structure and technological innovation have significantly influenced the spatial distribution of China’s BEV industry and propelled the evolution of global BEV trade patterns. This research illustrates the fundamental principles regarding the spatial organization of China’s BEV industry, clarifies each region’s status within DCI, and promotes the green and low-carbonization of economic development.