Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Abstract. Here we present a research framework for the first atmosphere-connected supermodel using state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 5 and 6 exchange information interactively while running, a process known as supermodeling. The primary goal of this approach is to synchronize the models, allowing them to create a new dynamical system which can theoretically benefit from each component model, in part by increasing the dimensionality of the system. In this study, we examine a single untrained supermodel where each model version is equally weighted in creating pseudo-observations. We demonstrate that the models synchronize well without decreased variability, particularly in storm track regions, across multiple timescales, and for variables where no information has been exchanged. Synchronization is less pronounced in the tropics, and in regions of lesser synchronization we observe a decrease in high-frequency variability. Additionally, the low-frequency modes of variability (North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American Pattern) are not degraded compared to the base models. For some variables, the mean bias, as well as the non-interactive ensemble mean, is reduced compared to control simulations of each model version.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geoscientific model development
Published
2025-09-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5451-2025
Primary Topic
3D Modeling in Geospatial Applications
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Ingo Bethke, Alok Gupta, Judith Berner, William E. Chapman et al.
Geoscientific model development
3D Modeling in Geospatial Applications
article

Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Ingo Bethke, Alok Gupta, Judith Berner, William E. Chapman, Ping‐Gin Chiu, Francine Schevenhoven, Noel Keenlyside, Jesse Nusbaumer
article en

Abstract

Abstract. Here we present a research framework for the first atmosphere-connected supermodel using state-of-the-art atmospheric models. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 5 and 6 exchange information interactively while running, a process known as supermodeling. The primary goal of this approach is to synchronize the models, allowing them to create a new dynamical system which can theoretically benefit from each component model, in part by increasing the dimensionality of the system. In this study, we examine a single untrained supermodel where each model version is equally weighted in creating pseudo-observations. We demonstrate that the models synchronize well without decreased variability, particularly in storm track regions, across multiple timescales, and for variables where no information has been exchanged. Synchronization is less pronounced in the tropics, and in regions of lesser synchronization we observe a decrease in high-frequency variability. Additionally, the low-frequency modes of variability (North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American Pattern) are not degraded compared to the base models. For some variables, the mean bias, as well as the non-interactive ensemble mean, is reduced compared to control simulations of each model version.

Geoscientific model developmentVol. 18(17)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NO), University of Bergen (NO)
National Science Foundation, H2020 European Research Council
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
3D Modeling in Geospatial Applications
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