Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Structural Changes in The Value of the Iraqi Dinar on The Monetary Base for the Period (2020-2024)

The study aimed to measure the impact of structural changes in Iraqi dinar value on the monetary base during the period (2020-2024), given the importance of the exchange rate in determining monetary policy stability. The study relied on analyzing issued currency, foreign reserves, and bank reserves at the central bank, as changes in the dinar’s value affect liquidity levels and financial stability. The fluctuations in the Iraqi dinar play a crucial role in determining the monetary size base due to their direct relationship with monetary policy. The study's problem lies in the fact that changes in the value of the Iraqi dinar directly impact liquidity levels, monetary reserves, and financial stability, making it essential to understand how the monetary base responds to these changes. The study employed a quantitative analysis methodology, utilizing regression models with structural changes, and analyzed monthly data provided by the Central Bank and the Central Bureau of Statistics to estimate the extent to which changes influence the monetary base in both the official and parallel exchange rates. The results showed that the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar at the end of 2020 led to an increase in the issuance of currency and liquidity, with ongoing exchange rate fluctuations affecting foreign reserves and bank credit. Regression models, considering structural changes, confirmed a statistically significant relationship between changes in the dinar's value and the size of the monetary base. The study recommended enhancing monetary policy stability, directing reserves to support the economy.