Onshoring low-carbon supply chains: Can subsidies meet the challenge?

Framing Chinese dominance in low-carbon supply chains as a strategic threat, Western governments have responded by deploying a range of subsidies to secure end-to-end supply chains, from critical minerals to batteries and EV production. This article addresses Canadian subsidies' approach to onshoring green manufacturing, with a focus on EV supply chains in Ontario. Based on 20 interviews with government officials and industry leaders and a literature review, we find several challenges to subsidizing supply chain integration – (1) opposition to new mining and infrastructure projects, in particular from some Indigenous communities, (2) policy makers lacking understanding of the complexity of low-carbon products’ supply chains, and (3) slowing global EV demand and regional trade barriers at a time of uncertainty for the sector under the second Trump administration. These challenges are responsible for the suspension or cancellation of projects which have received subsidies, undermining the broader onshoring strategy. • An independent and non-partisan financial office of the Canadian Parliament estimates that the Canadian and Ontario governments have spent $43.6 billion over a ten year period to subsidize the on-shoring of EV supply chains to ensure the future of the Canadian automotive industry. • Ontario aims to create an integrated supply chain by opening new mines in the province's north to feed processing and manufacturing facilities in the industrialized south. • The approach faces challenges including the deteriorating financial position of companies who have received subsidies and subsidized firms suspending investments, including Umicore and Ford. • Canadian officials and business executives leverage a mix of environmental, nationalist, commercial and security arguments to support their vision for, and subsidies to, a new EV supply chain.