Combining electrification and alternative fuels: an effective strategy to decarbonize the car sector

Abstract The emissions trajectory of the car sector remains misaligned with the Paris climate goals, largely due to the persistently high emissions from the global fleet of internal combustion engine vehicles. Therefore, we assess the potential impact of different electrification scenarios and their alignment with the carbon budgets for meeting climate objectives. Based on country-specific data, we model three scenarios with varying electric vehicle sales shares and grid electricity carbon intensities, analyzing how these factors affect fleet composition, energy demand, and emissions. We show the impact of three measures: (1) faster electrification, (2) a lower growth rate of the global fleet, and (3) the use of alternative fuels for faster defossilisation. The most effective strategy involves accelerating the electrification of new cars and simultaneously reducing emissions from the existing fleet of internal combustion engines through alternative fuels. A ban on combustion engines or vehicles generally has a minor effect on emissions.