Hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation validation of small-magnitude subduction earthquakes in New Zealand

Physics-based simulation of subduction earthquake ground motions remains less comprehensively validated than for shallow crustal earthquakes, despite subduction events contributing significantly to global seismic hazard. In this study, subduction-specific simulation models were developed and validated for small-magnitude ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> 3.5–5) interface and slab earthquakes using hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation. Simulation models were constrained by (1) global empirical ground-motion models, (2) a global database of finite-fault rupture models, and (3) global ground-motion simulation studies. The simulation models include subduction source-specific representations for stress parameter and rupture velocity, with a significant depth dependence of the stress parameter for slab earthquakes. Volcanic backarc effects on anelastic path attenuation are also included through path attenuation-based scaling of the rock quality factors in the simulations. The simulations leverage models for site and basin effects which have been validated using crustal earthquakes, for which there are many recorded ground motions, and the subduction-specific model modification mainly affect the high-frequency component of the ground-motion simulations above 1Hz. Simulation predictions were validated against a compiled dataset of observed subduction earthquake ground-motion records in New Zealand. The subduction-specific modifications significantly improve predictive performance compared to the use of simulation parameter values for active shallow crustal earthquakes and provide comparable accuracy to prior simulations for crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. Despite these promising results, further studies are needed to address prediction residuals at low frequencies (f ≤ 1 Hz), as well as extending validation to larger magnitude earthquakes.