Robust Cislunar Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization Under Uncertainties via Sequential Covariance Steering

Spacecraft operations are influenced by uncertainties such as dynamics modeling, navigation, and maneuver execution errors. Although mission design has traditionally incorporated heuristic safety margins to mitigate the effect of uncertainties, particularly before/after crucial events, it is yet unclear whether this practice will scale in the cislunar region, which features locally chaotic nonlinear dynamics and involves frequent lunar flybys. This paper applies chance-constrained covariance steering and sequential convex programming to simultaneously design an optimal trajectory and trajectory correction policy that can probabilistically guarantee safety constraints under the assumed physical/navigational error models. The results show that the proposed method can effectively control the state uncertainty in a highly nonlinear environment. The framework allows faster computation and lossless convexification of linear covariance propagation compared to existing methods, enabling a rapid and accurate comparison of [Formula: see text] costs for different uncertainty parameters. We demonstrate the algorithm on several transfers in the Earth–moon circular restricted three-body problem.