Combining satellite and meteorological insights for yellow stem borer risk prediction in rice cultivation

Yellow stem borer (YSB) is a major pest responsible for substantial rice yield losses which can be significantly reduced through accurate forecasting, enabling timely interventions. This study aimed to develop a forewarning model for YSB using weather parameters and remotely sensed vegetation indices based on 19 years (2000–2018) of data from Raipur, Chhattisgarh. Weather variables and satellite derived vegetation indices were used as predictors, with pest population as the response variable. The model developed for the 39th Standard Meteorological Week (SMW) indicated that lag-time period of four week i.e., advance prediction of peak YSB population by 35th SMW achieved with high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.77), low root mean square error (RMSE = 0.34) and low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 15%). Key predictors included the interaction of land surface wetness index and enhanced vegetation index, evening relative humidity and maximum temperature. A risk zoning map generated using the model indicated that most of Raipur falls under a low pest risk zone. Overall, this study highlights the potential of integrating satellite-based variables into pest forewarning systems, providing a foundation for more accurate agromet-advisory services in India.