Trend analysis of air surface temperature using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator in Tunisia

This study examines long-term (2003–2021) air surface temperature (AST) trends on monthly, seasonal, and annual patterns based on Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data from seven Tunisian sites using the MAKESENS model. Monthly AST patterns reveal a single peak, with January showing the lowest (280.29° K) and July the highest temperatures (312.40° K). Over 19 years, central stations exhibited stronger warming trends than desert and coastal regions. Tozeur showed the highest annual warming trend at 0.070° K year-1, while EL-Borma recorded a slight cooling trend of -0.009° K year-1. The Mann-Kendall test on AST data reveals significant monthly, seasonal, and annual trends. Positive trends were observed in January, February, April, May, November, and December, with negative trends in March, August, and October. Seasonally, warming trends was significant in winter and spring, with cooling trends in summer and autumn. Annual trends were predominantly positive across most stations. Warming was slower in summer and autumn along the Mediterranean coast but accelerated in winter and spring, particularly in continental areas. Regions south of 34° N warmed faster than northern and eastern regions, reinforcing the Mediterranean coastline as a climate change hotspot.