Designing Adaptive MMV Strategies for CO2 Storage Under Uncertainty: A Risk-Based Approach from the Parana Basin in Brazil

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as essential technology for climate change mitigation, with Brazil representing a promising but complex case study. While Brazil recently established a legal framework for CO₂ geological storage, critical regulatory gaps remain in permitting, monitoring, measurement, and verification (MMV) requirements. This uncertainty creates significant challenges for project developers, as MMV obligations directly impact project economics. Brazil's geological context adds further complexity. Despite having a mature oil and gas industry, most subsurface exploration has focused offshore, leaving substantial knowledge gaps about onshore deep saline aquifers suitable for carbon storage. Project developers must therefore make decisions with incomplete data, requiring robust frameworks to manage uncertainty and enable adaptive planning. Current international MMV frameworks emphasize deterministic reservoir models and compliance verification. A systematic method for managing uncertainties related to regulatory timeline, critical in Brazil, where projects are pending further licensing clarity and public acceptance.