Analysis of Coal-fired Power Plant Decommissioning Scenarios by Unit Commitment for Nine Areas in Japan

The power sector is being decarbonized to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, and the G7 has decided to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2035. In this study, we set up coal phase-out scenarios for 2030, 2040, and 2050, and conducted a simulation analysis by unit commitment with an expanded introduction of renewable energy. The simulation results showed that phasing out coal-fired power plants can help reduce CO2 emissions, and the introduction of coal-fired power plants with CCS was also effective in reducing emissions. On the other hand, it was found that achieving stable electricity supply would be difficult due to the need for renewable energy output curtailment and insufficient adjustment capacity.