Predicting Future Evolution of Rural Out-Migration: A Case in Uganda

Rural out-migration is a development issue shaping rural-urban interaction in the global south. Population re-distribution from rural to urban areas has development consequences for both the source and the destination areas. At destination, this phenomenon contributes to rapid population growth, while at origin, it contributes to labour drain. To support integrated rural and urban development, it is imperative to predict rural out-migration flows. Following Agent Based Modelling (ABM) approach, we simulated rural out-migration flows in Uganda. Simulated out-migrant volumes show an increasing trend for the decades 2020 to 2040. Rural out-migration flow will peak in 2040 and then decline steadily for the decade 2040 to 2050. This simulated trend in out-migration will ultimately impact the pyramid structure of the rural population. We predict a decline (about 6%) in the proportion of the population in the younger age groups (below19 years) during the decades 2030 to 2050. Most rural out-migrants will be from the middle age structures (between 20 and 44 years). Furthermore, the population pyramid shows steady increase in older age (above 55 years) rural population in the next 30 years, since 2020. The simulated out-migrant volumes and changes in age structure of the rural population imply consequences on labour-intensive livelihoods in the out-migrants catchment areas.