Whether demographic transition theory can account for the "aging before prospering" in emerging economies:evidence from county panel data in Gansu Province, China

Since 2023, two major events have occurred in the population development of China. First, China's population has experienced negative growth by 2022 and 2023. Second, India's total population officially surpassed that of China in April 2023. These landmark events indicate that China's population growth entered a new phase. The most prominent feature of the current phase is the accelerated aging of the population, which poses a crisis and challenge for China's population development. Against this backdrop, China's underdeveloped Gansu province could face an even greater crisis. Its economic foundation is already weak, and its economic development will become more difficult if its labor supply is affected by an aging population. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to and conduct systematic research on the issue of population growth in Gansu Province. With this aim, this study uses a spatial panel data model based on the Demographic Transition Theory to examine the mechanism through which family economic status influences population growth. Additionally, a mediation effect model was employed to test this mechanism. The study found that: 1) the overall spatial distribution of population growth in Gansu is higher in the east and lower in the west, and higher in the south and lower in the north. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the east-west divide widened, with high values tending to move westward. However, the sudden onset of the 2020 pandemic interrupted this trend. This indicates that the ageing process in Gansu is accelerating. 2) Gansu Province exhibited significant characteristics during the population transition stage. The research findings indicate that improvements in economic conditions indeed exert a restraining effect on population growth, aligning with the principles of Demographic Transition Theory. The robustness of this prediction was tested by shortening the time window and employing alternative estimation models, thereby demonstrating strong resilience in the underlying influence mechanism. 3) The results of the mechanism test indicated that the intermediary variable ec did not demonstrate statistical significance in relation to the explained variable br. This finding further strengthens the support for the underlying influence mechanism in this study. Based on these research conclusions, this study provides recommendations for enhancing the momentum of endogenous economic development and mobilizing social forces to alleviate life pressures on young people. It also intends to provide policy references for China's underdeveloped provinces to stabilize population growth and maintain labor supply.