Probabilistic Reliability Analysis for Bolted Joints Considering Corrosion-Induced Failures

Bolted joints are essential in mechanical systems, but corrosion significantly impacts their reliability, leading to premature failure and increased maintenance costs. This This study introduces a systematic framework for reliability analysis by integrating tensile, fatigue, and corrosion-induced failures within a unified model. A combination of analytical and probabilistic methods, including FORM, Monte Carlo simulations, and Markov models, are employed to estimate failure probabilities, capture system degradation, and address uncertainties in loading conditions and material properties. Sensitivity analysis highlights the critical influence of corrosion rate on joint reliability. This approach supports failure prediction, maintenance strategies, reducing resource consumption, and extending the service life of components, thus enhancing sustainability and contributing to circular economy. Future work will focus on experimental validation and Bayesian modeling to refine predictions and enhance accuracy adaptability.