Copper as a catalyst: the strategic role of mineral resources in the clean energy transition

Purpose This study aims to investigate the relationship between copper mineral dependency and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in developing economies. It addresses a critical gap in the literature that has largely overlooked copper’s unique role in industrial decarbonization, despite growing emphasis on energy transition minerals in global climate policy discussions. Design/methodology/approach The study examines 16 Global South countries over the period 1996–2019, using robust panel data estimation techniques. These include cross-dependency tests, cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag models, generalized method of moments and moments quantile regression. Key variables analyzed include copper trade, environmental patents, urbanization and democratic governance. Findings The results reveal that democratic institutions, environmental innovation and critical mineral trade are associated with increased CO2 emissions, whereas urbanization has a mitigating effect. Moreover, the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is validated across the sample, indicating a nonlinear relationship between income and emissions. These outcomes suggest the need for income-sensitive and governance-aware frameworks in resource-rich developing nations. Research limitations/implications The study has some limitations. Data availability and quality vary across the 16 Global South countries analyzed, which may affect the results. Additionally, focusing on these specific countries limits the broader applicability of the findings. Finally, the econometric models may not fully capture complex interactions or external factors such as market changes and technological shifts. Practical implications To address the environmental impacts and governance challenges linked to copper’s role in the clean energy transition, several practical policy measures are recommended. Policymakers should strengthen democratic governance and support environmental innovation to manage emissions from mineral trade. Sustainable urban planning and income-sensitive climate policies are essential to align economic growth with environmental goals. These measures can help resource-rich developing countries leverage copper’s benefits while advancing their climate commitments. Social implications The social implications of the findings suggest that strengthening democratic institutions can improve transparency, accountability and public participation in managing mineral resources. This can help ensure that the benefits of copper trade and clean energy investments support inclusive development, reduce inequality and promote social stability in developing economies. Originality/value This study offers novel empirical evidence on copper’s strategic role in the clean energy transition, a topic that has received limited attention compared to other transition minerals. By integrating economic, governance and environmental dimensions, the research provides actionable insights for policymakers aiming to balance mineral resource strategies with climate mitigation goals in the Global South.