An Examination of Tuition Revenue Dependence as a Predictor of Master's Programme and Degree Completion Growth in the United States

ABSTRACT Since the 1970s, master's degrees represent the fastest growing degree in the United States (US). Accordingly, there is a need for greater understanding of the factors that have contributed to this sustained, upward trend. Guided by resource dependence theory, we conducted hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses to examine whether more than 1000 non‐profit US institutions' dependence on tuition revenue (i.e., tuition revenue as a percentage of core revenues) is a statistically significant predictor of the percentage change in the number of master's degree programmes offered and master's degree completions between 2005 and 2023. We found that tuition revenue does not make a statistically significant contribution to the prediction of master's programmes offered and master's programme completions. However, we found that Baccalaureate Colleges and institutions with higher student‐to‐faculty ratios (i.e., fewer faculty resources) were significantly more likely to experience increases in master's programme offerings and completions, demonstrating that institutional adaptation to financial pressures is complex and shaped by more than tuition revenue generation alone. We conclude by discussing the implications for institutional decision‐making, the importance of aligning the supply and demand for master's degrees, and directions for future research.