Analysis of agricultural land carrying capacity and projected food demand

Background: Cilacap Regency is one of the leading rice-producing regions in Central Java and is widely recognized as a rice granary of the province. This study aims to assess the agricultural land carrying capacity and project future population growth in Cilacap Regency. Method: A quantitative descriptive approach was employed using secondary data sourced from the Cilacap Regency statistical reports for the years 2013–2023. Findings: The analysis reveals that the agricultural land carrying capacity in Cilacap consistently falls under Class 1 each year, indicating the region’s strong ability to achieve rice self-sufficiency. However, population projections for 2033 show that certain districts—namely South Cilacap, Central Cilacap, and North Cilacap—may require an expansion of harvested area to meet future food demand. A key limitation of this study lies in the absence of projected agricultural land carrying capacity for the year 2033. Conclusion: Future research should address this gap to provide a more comprehensive outlook for sustainable food security planning in Cilacap Regency. Novelty/ originality of this article: The novelty of this study lies in assessing Cilacap Regency’s agricultural land carrying capacity alongside future population projections, identifying potential food demand challenges, and informing sustainable rice self-sufficiency planning strategies.