MODEL OF ECONOMIC SECURITY MANAGEMENT FOR AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES UNDER MARKET CHANGES

The aim of this article is to develop a model for managing the economic security of agricultural businesses under market transformations, taking into account forecasting and modelling the development of each target market for the enterprise. The application of economic and mathematical models is proposed within the context of managing the economic security of the agricultural sector. This approach not only enables the analysis and forecasting of various economic processes but also facilitates the development of a well-founded strategy to minimise potential risks and exploit available opportunities.It is demonstrated that the use of economic and mathematical models contributes to the objectivity of the decision-making process, ensuring high reliability and effectiveness. A mathematical apparatus for forecasting and modelling the development of each target market of the enterprise is proposed. It accounts for the influence of key factors on economic security within each of the target markets of an agricultural enterprise and evaluates the impact of each market on the overall economic security of the enterprise, thereby enabling the formulation of appropriate tactical measures.To assess the current state of the core markets relevant to the enterprise and identify possible adaptation measures in the field of economic security for the year 2025, the proposed methodological approaches were used to evaluate trends in target markets. Growth coefficients were calculated for the financial market, sales market, labour market, and energy market for the enterprise LLC “Semenivsky Agroservice”.An analysis of the financial market’s condition and trends indicates a deterioration in 2022 compared to 2020; however, in 2023–2024, all indicators began to gradually show a recovery trend. The analysis revealed that, overall, these factors led to a negative growth rate of the financial market coefficient.It was also determined that LLC “Semenivsky Agroservice” exports a significant portion of its products abroad; therefore, the depreciation of the national currency cannot be unequivocally regarded as a negative factor. Methodological approaches have been proposed that when adapted to the specific conditions of the enterprise, may serve as indicators for revising planned targets, strategies, and tactics in the field of financial and economic security.